Why Clint Capela Needs to Fire His Agent

 

Credit: NBA.com


On Wednesday, September 1st Clint Capela signed a 2-year extension with the Atlanta Hawks.  Let's take a look at Capela's production, the details of the deal and how Atlanta just got away with contractual murder.

Metric #1: fivethirtyeight.com's RAPTOR ratings

-3: Replacement Level
0: Low Level Starter
4: All-Star Level
9: MVP Level

Per-season production - since 2017
Overall RAPTOR
PlayerTeamMinutesOffenseDefenseTotalWAR
Clint Capela '17-'18Rockets2,5540.43.33.78.4
Clint Capela '18-'19Rockets2,5800.81.92.77.2
Clint Capela '19-'20Hawks1,279-14.23.13.8
Clint Capela '20-'21Hawks2,4670.85.2611


In '20-'21 Capela ranked 9th in WAR and 12th in total RAPTOR.


Metric #2: bball-index.com's LEBRON ratings





The fact that we can even see his image in this scatter plot is telling.  According to LEBRON, Capela ranked 3rd defensively and 19th overall in '20-'21.  Among "Roll and Cut Bigs" he ranked 2nd overall (out of 27 that qualified).


Metric #3: basketball-reference.com's Box Plus/Minus, Value Over Replacement Player


RankNameBPMVORP
35Mikal Bridges33
36Michael Porter Jr.32.4
37Chris Boucher2.91.8
38Montrezl Harrell2.71.9
39Ben Simmons2.72.2
40Jonas Valančiūnas2.72.1
41Jaylen Brown2.52.3
42Clint Capela2.52.1
43Brandon Ingram2.22.2
44Fred VanVleet2.22
45John Collins2.11.9

Interestingly, Clint ranked just 42nd in Box Plus Minus and Value Over Replacement Player, according to basketball-reference.com.  It should be noted that while LEBRON and RAPTOR take into account on/off data (RAPTOR even takes into account tracking data to see how quickly a defender closes down shooters), BPM and VORP do not.



To recap

 RAPTOR ranked Capela as 12th, LEBRON had in 19th, and BBREF ranked him 42nd.  I don't think it would be in poor taste to simply average these ranks and check to see what type of contract that should land a player of that caliber.  

Capela Average NBA rank: 24
24th largest NBA salary in 2021: Devin Booker, $31.6m 
Capela's new per year salary: $22m


Even if we take into account the BBREF rating, which clearly isn't doing Capela any favors, he is still going to be at least $10m underpaid per year.  

Now you might say, well, age has to be taken into account, right?  You're paying for future production not past.  Right you would be!  Good thing Capela is 27, literally in year #1 of his prime.  Statistically, his excellent '20-'21 season should hold up for at least a year and a half before steadily dropping off.

Look, we all see what's going on here.  Guys get paid the big bucks in this league for scoring, and Capela isn't great at that.  He's not terrible, but not great.  Still, Capela is one of three players that can defend Giannis, Embiid and Jokic.  There is serious reciprocal value there.  Shame on his agent.

However, for you Hawks fans - congrats on the steal of free agency.  This was highway robbery.  Your championship window has been thrust open.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

How Bad are NBA GMs? Ep. 7 - Dallas Mavericks

Image
   In this series I will be breaking down every impactful transaction in the NBA to better understand the performance of the average NBA GM.  Since the vast majority of decisions made by GMs cannot be proven to be good or bad immediately, we will start in the year 2018.  Weight = how impactful the action is/was for the franchise.  Rating = quantifying the decision in hindsight from 1-10, 10 being excellent and 1 being terrible. GM - Donnie Nelson (2005-2019) Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports Heading into 2018 the Mavericks record was 13-25.  Preseason expectations had them at 22nd of 30 teams.  A 40-year-old Dirk Nowitzki managed to play in 77 games but was clearly ineffective.  The only assets at the Mavericks disposal at this point were 20-year-old Dennis Smith Jr, 24-year-old Dorian Finney-Smith and 23-year-old Nerlens Noel - fine rotational pieces but nothing much more.  Dwight Powell, however, was also having a very solid sophomore y...
Read more

How Bad are NBA GMs? Ep. 2 - Boston Celtics

Image
   In this series I will be breaking down every impactful transaction in the NBA to better understand the performance of the average NBA GM.  Since the vast majority of decisions made by GMs cannot be proven to be good or bad immediately, we will start in the year 2018.  Weight = how impactful the action is/was for the franchise.  Rating = quantifying the decision in hindsight from 1-10, 10 being excellent and 1 being terrible. GM - Danny Ainge (2004-2020) Credit: Getty Images Expectations were high for this Celtics team.  They were 30-10 at the start of the calendar year, and would go on to push LeBron's Cavs to 7 games in the eastern conference finals.  There were only 5 transactions of note which is curious; the lack of activity may have contributed to Ainge's eventual downfall. Feb 8 2018 Greg Monroe, C Signed a 1 year $5 million contract with Boston (BOS) Paid as a mid-level rotational player, slightly exceeded expectations. Weight: 30%   ...
Read more

Top 5 Least Desirable Contracts in the NBA

Image
 As we inch closer to 2022 Free Agency - with many big questions looming - now is as good a time as any to check out some of the ugliest contracts currently holding franchises back.  This list is based off of money earned / 2021-2022 advanced production +/- (compiling EPM , DPM , LEBRON , and RAPTOR ).  Note: every player on this list has at least 2 years remaining on his current deal.  Deals with 1 year left are considered expiring and, in general, are much more useful. #5 NBAE via Getty Images Klay Thompson Contract: $41.9m/year - 2 years Age: 32 2021/2022 Per Minute Production Rank: #96/440 If you're a fan of the NBA, you're probably a fan of Klay Thompson.  If he were making less than $40m he would not be on this list.  He's an ultra intelligent, extremely active sharpshooter.  Sadly, though, even before his devastating Achilles injury his production began declining.  Even his 3P% - which constantly hovered around 42% for his career - has drop...
Read more