How Bad are NBA GMs? Ep. 7 - Dallas Mavericks

 

 In this series I will be breaking down every impactful transaction in the NBA to better understand the performance of the average NBA GM.  Since the vast majority of decisions made by GMs cannot be proven to be good or bad immediately, we will start in the year 2018.  Weight = how impactful the action is/was for the franchise.  Rating = quantifying the decision in hindsight from 1-10, 10 being excellent and 1 being terrible.

GM - Donnie Nelson (2005-2019)

Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Heading into 2018 the Mavericks record was 13-25.  Preseason expectations had them at 22nd of 30 teams.  A 40-year-old Dirk Nowitzki managed to play in 77 games but was clearly ineffective.  The only assets at the Mavericks disposal at this point were 20-year-old Dennis Smith Jr, 24-year-old Dorian Finney-Smith and 23-year-old Nerlens Noel - fine rotational pieces but nothing much more.  Dwight Powell, however, was also having a very solid sophomore year with the club.

		Overall RAPTOR
Player	Minutes	Offense	Defense	Total	WAR
Dwight Powell	1,672	0.5	2.9	3.4	5.2
Yogi Ferrell	2,282	-0.6	1.2	0.6	3.8
J.J. Barea	1,603	3.4	-1.7	1.7	3.6
Dirk Nowitzki	1,900	0.6	-0.4	0.2	2.9
Harrison Barnes	2,634	-1.4	-0.2	-1.5	1.6
Maxi Kleber	1,206	-2.1	1.5	-0.6	1.3
Wesley Matthews	2,131	-0.6	-1.5	-2.2	0.6
Doug McDermott	1,768	-1.4	-1.3	-2.8	0
Dennis Smith Jr.	2,049	-2.2	-3.3	-5.5	-2.9

February 8 2018  Devin Harris, PG Traded to Denver (DEN) from Dallas (DAL) as part of a 3-team trade for Doug McDermott and 2019 2nd round pick

Not a bad deal, but relatively meaningless as neither player would exceed 2000 minutes in a year.

		Overall RAPTOR
Player	Minutes	Off.	Def.	Tot.	WAR
Devin Harris '16-'17	1,087	1.6	0.4	2.1	2.7
Devin Harris '17-'18	1,340	1.6	-0.7	0.9	2.50
Devin Harris '18-'19	1,071	-0.1	-1.4	-1.5	0.7
		Overall RAPTOR
Player	Minutes	Off.	Def.	Tot.	WAR
Doug McDermott '16-'17	1,574	-0.3	-4	-4.3	-1.2
Doug McDermott '17-'18	1,768	-1.4	-1.3	-2.8	0
Doug McDermott '18-'19	1,369	0.3	-2.3	-2.1	0.5
Doug McDermott '19-'20	1,426	0.8	-2.2	-1.4	0.9

Weight: 20%     Rating: 7/10

June 21 2018  #5 Trae Young, PG Traded to Atlanta (ATL) from Dallas (DAL) with 2019 1st round pick (#10 Cam Reddish) for #3 Luka Doncic

Dallas essentially forked over a lottery pick (for the next year) to trade up 2 spots and land Luka Doncic.  It must have felt like a huge gamble and a hefty price to pay, but it's looking more and more like Luka will be an all-time great.  Trae has been very good, but Luka is on another level.

Player	Minutes	Off.	Def.	Tot.	WAR
Trae Young '18-'19	2,503	2.4	-4.5	-2.1	0.8
Trae Young '19-'20	2,120	7.1	-3.3	3.7	7.2
Trae Young '20-'21	2,728	6.1	-3.9	2.1	7
Trae Young '21-'22	2,838	6.7	-3	3.7	9.4

Player	Minutes	Off.	Def.	Tot.	WAR
Luka Doncic '18-'19	2,318	3.1	-0.9	2.2	5.9
Luka Doncic '19-'20	2,262	7.4	-1.1	6.3	10.6
Luka Doncic '20-'21	2,543	6.6	-0.8	5.9	11.4
Luka Doncic '21-'22	2,368	5.8	0.5	6.2	11

Player	Minutes	Off.	Def.	Tot.	WAR
Cam Reddish '19-'20	1,551	-2.9	0	-3	-0.2
Cam Reddish '20-'21	842	-2.3	0.1	-2.2	0.2
Cam Reddish '21-'22	1,012	-2.7	-0.7	-3.5	-0.4

Weight: 100%     Rating: 10/10

June 21 2018  Jalen Brunson, PG Drafted by Dallas (DAL): Round 2 (#33 overall)

Donnie struck gold in the 2nd round. Brunson has been terrific up to this point and is currently playing fantastic ball during the '22 playoffs.

Player	Minutes	Off.	Def.	Tot.	WAR
Jalen Brunson '18-'19	1,591	0	-0.6	-0.6	1.8
Jalen Brunson '19-'20	1,022	1.3	0.9	2.2	2.5
Jalen Brunson '20-'21	1,811	1.5	-0.1	1.4	3.7
Jalen Brunson '21-'22	2,714	2.9	-0.6	2.4	7

Weight: 20%     Rating: 10/10

June 21 2018  Shake Milton, SG (#54 overall) Traded to Philadelphia (PHI) from Dallas (DAL) for Ray Spalding and Kostas Antetokounmpo

This draft day trade sent #54 overall pick Shake Milton, currently a decent rotational option, out for two players that would not make any impact on any roster ever.

Weight: 10% Rating: 1/10

July 6 2018 DeAndre Jordan, C Signed a 1 year $22.9 million contract with Dallas (DAL)

Jordan would be a decent role player for the Mavs, but his largest contribution would be his involvement in a trade the following year. Certainly worth nowhere near $23 million.

Player	Minutes	Off.	Def.	Tot.	WAR
DeAndre Jordan '16-'17	2,834	1.3	1.5	2.8	8
DeAndre Jordan '17-'18	2,424	-0.9	-1	-1.8	1.2
DeAndre Jordan '18-'19	2,047	-2.2	0.7	-1.5	1.3
DeAndre Jordan '19-'20	1,234	-1.6	1.8	0.3	1.9
DeAndre Jordan '20-'21	1,246	-3	-0.7	-3.7	-0.6
DeAndre Jordan '21-'22	622	-3.9	-1.5	-5.4	-0.8

Weight: 70% Rating: 3/10

August 8 2018 Devin Harris, PG Signed a 1 year $2.4 million contract with Dallas (DAL)

A few months after being traded from Dallas, Harris signs as a free agent with the club for his farewell tour. He would be a solid role player in just over 1000 minutes.

Weight: 10% Rating: 6/10

Conclusions:

2018 was a huge year for the Mavericks as they acquired the face of their franchise for the foreseeable future. When taking into account the Brunson pick, it must be said that the Mavs drafted extremely well this year. Still, the free agent movement was a bit disappointing. In fairness, Nelson probably assumed the team would be in tank mode the following year.

Total Impactful Decisions: 6

Weighted Average Transaction Rating: 7/10        Ranked #1 (out of 7)

Big Decision (70%+) Average: 6.5/10        Ranked #2 (out of 7)