How Bad are NBA GMs? Ep. 1 - Atlanta Hawks
In this series I will be breaking down every impactful transaction in the NBA to better understand the performance of the average NBA GM. Since the vast majority of decisions made by GMs cannot be proven to be good or bad immediately, we will start in the year 2018. Weight = how impactful the action is/was for the franchise. Rating = quantifying the decision in hindsight from 1-10, 10 being excellent and 1 being terrible.
GM - Travis Schlenk (2017-present)
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| Credit: Brett Davis - USA TODAY Sports |
2018 began during a tanking season for Atlanta who were already well on their way to a 24-58 record.
Apr 2 2018 Damion Lee, SG Signed a (rest-of-the-year) contract with Atlanta (ATL)
Actually signed a good player to a rest-of-the-year deal, but in the end this was just a showcase for other teams - Schlenk let him walk in the offseason
Weight: 10% Rating: 5/10
Apr 25 2018 Mike Budenholzer, COACH Released/parted ways with Atlanta (ATL)
Can't sugar coat this. Budenholzer would win CotY the very next season, and a championship 2 years later.
Weight: 90% Rating: 2/10
May 11 2018 Lloyd Pierce, COACH Signed a 3 year contract with Atlanta (ATL)
To make the Budenholzer firing even worse, his replacement would win just 34% of games the next 3 seasons.
Weight: 90% Rating: 1/10
Jun 21 2018 ATL Traded #3 Overall Pick to DAL for #5 Overall and Protected 2019 1st Round Pick (#10 Cam Reddish)
Franchise-changing moment here. While ATL received an all star (Trae Young) (and maybe a future low-level starter), they gave up what appears to be an all-time great (DAL selected Luka Doncic at #3). On the surface it actually looked like a good deal for ATL, but a good GM should be able to identify an all-timer.
Weight: 100% Rating: 3/10
Jun 21 2018 Trae Young, PG Drafted at #5 Overall
The next best player available was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In an incredibly weak draft, this was the only pick that kept the Luka trade from being a complete disaster.
Weight: 90% Rating: 10/10
Jun 21 2018 Kevin Huerter, SG Drafted by Atlanta (ATL): Round 1 (#19 overall)
Kevin Huerter appears to be developing into a decent role player. Not many better options after #19 in hindsight.
Weight: 60% Rating: 8/10
Jun 21 2018 Omari Spellman, PF Drafted by Atlanta (ATL): Round 1 (#30 overall)
Nearly 50% of players taken after this pick would perform better than Spellman the next few years, many of starter caliber.
Weight: 50% Rating: 2/10
Jun 21 2018 Devonte' Graham, PG Traded to Charlotte (CHA) from Atlanta (ATL) for 2023 2nd round pick and 2019 2nd round pick (#44 - traded)
I understand the strategy of this deal (Schlenk's draft philosophy is as if he is just playing the lottery - more picks = better odds to hit it big), but all Schlenk did here was trade away a verifiably good player for basically nothing.
Weight: 50% Rating: 2/10
Jul 13 2018 Jeremy Lin, PG Traded to Atlanta (ATL) from Brooklyn (BKN) with 2025 2nd round pick and right to swap 2023 2nd round picks for 2020 2nd round pick [top-55 protected (Portland's pick)] and Isaia Cordinier
Just a salary cap move. Lin had a $13m expiring deal. A ruptured tendon meant his career was effectively over.
Weight: 20% Rating: 5/10
Jul 25 2018 Justin Anderson, SG Traded to Atlanta (ATL) from Philadelphia (PHI) as part of a 3-team trade: Atlanta (ATL) traded Mike Muscala to Philadelphia (PHI); Atlanta (ATL) traded Dennis Schröder to Oklahoma City (OKC); Philadelphia (PHI) traded Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot to Oklahoma City (OKC); Oklahoma City (OKC) traded Carmelo Anthony and 2022 1st round pick to Atlanta (ATL)
To make this a bit easier to understand...
Carmelo would be waived a few days later (expiring deal). Logic: we're not going to be good for a few years, let's package a couple OK guys for some financial freedom and a future 1st rounder. Can't hate it too much.
Weight: 70% Rating: 6/10
Aug 3 2018 Alex Len, C Signed a 2 year $8.51 million contract with Atlanta (ATL)
Len did exactly what you'd expect for $4mil, he was a solid rotational player.
Weight: 30% Rating: 8/10
Aug 20 2018 Daniel Hamilton, SG Signed a 1 year $1.35 million contract with Atlanta (ATL)
Played 200 mins of above-average-for-rotational-player ball the next season.
Weight: 10% Rating: 8/10
Aug 24 2018 Vince Carter, SG Signed a 1 year $2.39 million contract with Atlanta (ATL)
This was a great signing. Not only did Vince put up good rotational numbers in 1300+ minutes, but I'm sure his wisdom for guys like Young truly helped with development.
Weight: 40% Rating: 9/10
Conclusions:
At this point, the Hawks franchise was in a bit of a tough spot but Schlenk did not do Atlanta many favors, especially by trading away Luka Doncic.
Total Impactful Decisions: 13
Weighted Average Transaction Rating: 4.8/10 Ranked #3 (out of 3)
Big Decision (70%+) Average: 4.4/10 Ranked #3 (out of 3)
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